the buzz log

Numbers don't lie. They just love to trick us.

Projecting the results of a popularity contest isn't easy. Some folks cover the same prognostication beat and wind up with a different answer. We'll offer our tip: timing. Always trust loyal fans making their searches on performance night, and not those fairweather Sanjaya curiosity-seekers.

Luckily, we had more than an inkling that Jordin Sparks would fly in this competiton. You see, the Buzz prediction didn't come just from the raw numbers. Instead, it took a little geography, some history, and a dash of women's studies. Sharpen your cursors, as we review the final three in our final "Idol" lesson of the season.

•Doolittle, Too Late: Melinda Doolittle played teacher's pet, or perhaps more accurately a humble Eliza Doolittle to Simon Cowell's crotchety Professor Higgins. More than the "Idol" judge's outright endorsement, the Nashville native needed the traditional "Idol" voting bloc—the South. Unlike Alabama patrol-man and season five champ Taylor Hicks, they failed to rise for Melinda and the Buzz showed. When she fell, so did the South's five-year dominance of "American Idol."

•Stuck in a Beat-Box. Blake Lewis had actually been pulling in more searches than Jordin for weeks. Then again, if sheer Buzz numbers meant victory, Katharine McPhee would've won last year, and Sanjaya Malakar and Antonella Barba would be All-Time "Idol" King and Queen. Blake had the rabid adoration of pre-teen girls, but he needed to woo ladies aged 30-54, the core "American Idol" searchers. Thus, not only did he lag behind Jordin 25% among women, his support nation-wide waxed and waned over the final three weeks.

•The Jordin March. The judges called Melinda most consistent. In that vein, we award Jordin Most Improved (sorry, Sanjaya gets Miss Congeniality). The girl who started by picking songs from Disney movies matured tremendously in vocals, appearance, and in searches. Unlike LaKisha Jones and Melinda, who set the vocal bar too high and too soon, Jordin followed the path of the tortoise in this race. The statuesque teen built up wider geographic Buzz, earned the affection of women, and received the grudging nod of the all-powerful Simon—which is more than what Taylor got last year. Her win marks many "Idol" firsts (the youngest, a non-Southerner, and biracial) and she did it all while still doing her homework.