the buzz log

Does David Cook have to watch his back now that David Archuleta's father has been banned from the set?  Did Jason Castro psychologically flub his lines, or was he undone by unwillingness to knuckle under the "Idol" machinery? And, seriously, how has Syesha Mercado managed to survive and flummox the critics?

As "American Idol" careens to its crowning moment, many questions arise. Of course, the most paramount is who will win season 7. The contest was supposed to come down to second-chance Cinderellas Michael Johns and Carly Smithson. Over the weeks, Cook has evolved from "dark horse" (per judge Simon Cowell) to Idol personified (per judge Paula Abdul), while Mercado's theatrical flair paradoxically made her more real.

Mercado, though, is past her expiration date, so unless an upset (or a stage dad) is in the offing, odds favor a David vs. David scenario. In straight unadulterated searches, the 17 year old leads by a skimpy 5%. In the complicated Buzz Log formula however, which depends on geography and gender, the projection calls for Cook to win Season 7. And the chart please...