the buzz log

When the legend of capitalism is studied millennia from now, will future economists recognize discount sales as the slippery slopes that they are? After all, once you knock 50% off a price tag, it's going to take that and then some to get shoppers to come back again.

And don't retailers know it. Every year they churn out massive discounts and incentives to inspire the increasingly crazy shopping that occurs once we've stopped eating turkey. This time around, though, consumers and retailers have been playing a game of chicken in this woeful economy.

So far, needy desperation had led to discounts well in advance of the holiday season, leading to spikes for that awkward term, "pre-black friday sales." Black Friday may sound like the title of a low-budget holiday slasher flick, but in this sequel not all buyers have fallen victim to incremental cuts, and many may be holding out for the bitter final markdown.

Indeed, intense online vigilance continues to show a pent-up need to buy: Cumulative searches for sale-related terms ("day after thanksgiving sale", "walmart black friday") and sites tracking them ("theblackfriday.com," "tgi black friday") are 38% higher than the same 2007 shopping period.

True, the Sacramento Bee claims "big early markdowns could rob Black Friday of some of its traditional oomph." Then again, the New York Post reports that shopping centers expect Thanksgiving sales to be higher... but profit margins smaller. Search activity may be leaning towrds the Post's slightly more optimistic outlook: Would-be shoppers have been scouting out way more stores in advance than last year, such as:
  • Wal-Mart, Toys R Us, Sears, Target, Circuit City, Kmart, Menards, Macy's, Meijer, Apple, Amazon, Fry's, Kohl's, Home Depot, Office Depot, Shopko, Best Buy, Lowes, Staples, Sam's Club, JC Penney, Old Navy, Costco.

Naturally, part of this increased online activity could due merely to savvier consumer behavior about checking for sales info online (especially finding those ads so conveniently "leaked" in advance).

Or perhaps consumers realize that this year, they don't have to pay the real Black Friday prices: nasty crowds, dwindling inventories, and mall overload. Instead, they can bide their time or, as they've been already doing, walk away entirely. In this game of chicken, the retailers have already blinked, and may be preparing for the crash as well.