the buzz log

Baby market—bullish or bearish?

Among the many trends attributed to (or blamed on) the recession, people have been trying to figure out if baby bundles are on the rise. Are bad times contributing to some good times, borne out 9 months later in a population boomlet?

One USA Today blogger is seeing babies all around her, not only on reality TV but also from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS): 2007 fertility rates were a wee bit higher than 2006 (2.12 vs 2.1). However, earlier this year, The New York Times threw cold water on many stork deliveries and adoptions. Slate recently cited a medical group's neonatal slump as proof of less "fruitful reproductive activity." While NPR found a lady or two taking advantage of the downturn, it said "no solid statistics" existed since birth rates are what number-crunchers call a "lagging indicator."

Well, there could be another way figure this out: the Web. Moms-to-be (and impending dads as well) often head to Yahoo! Search to look up fertility tools like:

• "ovulation calendar" (maximizing hit rates)
• "how to get pregnancy fast" (grammar-challenged seeking tips)
• "signs of pregnancy" (checking success)
• "chinese birth chart" (divining personality traits)
• "baby gender predictor" (sonogram alternatives)
• "baby shower invitations" (successful endeavors)
• "birth announcements" (done deal)

Adding these all up should give a bouncing-baby clue. Will there be more boys? And girls? The possible answer:

Gloomy Family Forecast
Search numbers do echo the NCHS facts, that pregnancy-related research peaked in July-December 2007. Look-ups for "baby announcements," "baby shoes" and "baby toys" had a high during that same time period.

The recession officially started December 2007. Since then, baby-friendly searches haven't just dropped (a 15% drop in January-June 2009 versus July-December 2007)—they're at an all-time low since 2005.

Chance of Baby Showers
Here's one quirk: Baby shower-related queries are at an all-time high. How could that be? Well, normally, U.S. birth rates are higher in the August through October months, so people could be gearing up for a fresh batch...but that doesn't explain everything.

Another theory: People might be making a bigger baby shower fuss, since they're scrimping on everything else. Americans splurged for a homey Fourth of July. Plus, a shower's the big chance to get good gifts—and save mom and dad some out-of-pocket expenses.

Pregnant Pause
So, nearly all Search signs point to a pregnant pause...but that doesn't mean ladies aren't thinking about it. Lookups for ovulation calendars and calculators are pretty steady. Gotta keep an eye on that biological clock.