the buzz log

The duel. The face-off. The toe-to-toe, mano a mano singfest. "American Idol" is finally down to two. But before we leave Top 3 week behind, let's examine the lore of the Third Place Curse.

Coming in second isn't the bummer as it used to be. While the runner-up isn't an understudy who steps up in the event of laryngitis or rehab, more than a handful have gotten decent stage work and sitcom guest roles (Idolheaded blog has an impressive round-up of almost-rans through 2006).

Visits from Chris Daughtry (season 5, 4th place) reminded audiences (and competitors) that winning isn't everything. And Jason Castro, who got the boot in Top 4 week last year, signed on to big-name Atlantic Records.

But third place? Whispers across "Idol" forums speak of third place as purgatory. "Nobody who's placed 3rd has been successful," averred one commentor. TV Squad has a sympathetic once-over for that awkward spot, noting things like "Vonzell has the disappointing record of being the highest finishing Idol contestant to not get picked up by a record label."

But, the curse may be lifted thanks to Elliot Yamin's independent streak. Below, a Web ranking of the past season's 2nd and 3rd place finishers. At least their "Idol" rank doesn't necessarily determine their online popularity.

Top "American Idol" Runner-Ups, past 7 days

1. David Archuleta (season 7, 2nd)
2. Clay Aiken (season 2, 2nd)
3. Elliott Yamin (season 5, 3rd)
4. Katharine McPhee (season 5, 2nd)
5. Blake Lewis (season 6, 2nd)
6. Melinda Doolittle (season 6, 3rd)
7. Bo Bice (season 4, 2nd)
8. Nikki McKibbin (season 1, 3rd)
9. Jasmine Trias (season 3, 3rd)
10. Diana DeGarmo (season 3, 2nd)
11. Justin Guarini (season 1, 2nd)
12. Syesha Mercado (season 7, 3rd)
13. Vonzell Solomon (season 4, 3rd)
14. Kimberley Locke (season 2, 3rd)

Filed under: TV, Reality TV, American Idol, Music

"American Idol" has once more come down to the final three. A remarkably scandal-free Season 8 leaves only talent to distract the audience, but does this boys' club seem somehow inevitable? The judges' panel has looked more like an Adam Lambert rally (especially once Simon Cowell capitulated), Danny Gokey from the first was producers' clear sentimental favorite, and Kris Allen didn't take long to be dubbed as the dark horse.

If it hadn't been for that surreal Top 5 week when the so-called Glambert landed in the bottom three (spurring much conspiracy conjectures), the Fox show's audience might have been, dare we say, complacent about who would coast to the top.

Blip aside, no matter how the Search data gets sliced and diced, the Web passions are running his way, with more searches than his competitors combined. That's even before Cowell's Complete Capitulation: The persnickety judge is declaring Mr. California the winner. If all this is true, then the real suspense is, who'll be the runner-up to step in should Lambert be unable to fulfill his "Idol" duties. Oh wait, coming in second doesn't really matter.

For those who do care, here are some 2nd-place scenarios depending on how you mix up the Secret Search Idol Projection Hot Sauce.

• The states most into "Idol" in the past 7 days have been Arkansas (Allen's home state), Wisconsin (Gokey's home state), Oregon, California and Utah. In a look at these five states' candidate searches, Allen barely edges out Gokey for second place.
• Narrow that down to women 35-54 (core Idolers) within those five states, and Gokey squeaks past Allen by a nose hair for the spot.
• Don't count out home state fervor: Allen's Arkansas leads the nation's searches for "Idol," and by a sizable margin. The South may be itching to rise again and reclaim that "Idol" dominance.
• Don't count out the ladies: Women 35-54 from all states favor Gokey.

Confusing enough? Basically, it'll come down to performances, so Allen will have to get animated and Gokey tone down the horror high notes. 

Check out the chart below, and look for more updates after performance night.

The "Idol" Search for the Winner
Top Three	Top States Searches	Search Heat Map
Adam Lambert	Kansas, Arkansas, Wisconsin, California, Michigan
Danny Gokey	Wisconsin, Arkansas, Ohio, Illinois, Texas
Kris Allen	Arkansas, Kansas, Wisconsin, California, Texas

Filed under: TV, Reality TV, American Idol, Music

What can we say that we haven't say for the last few weeks? Adam Lambert's got a mega lead over runner-up Danny Gokey by a factor of 12. Allison Iraheta's last—but here's something new: Her Search numbers are virtually a tie with Kris Allen.

But guess who's visiting Rock Week results night? Chris Daughtry, the "shocker" boot from season 5 of "American Idol." Superstitious types in favor of Lambert might well be conflicted over this Grammy nominee's proximity: Maybe Lambert will be ousted...and be oodles more successful than the actual winner. Daughtry's freshman album went quadruple-platinum. The Season 5 winner (hint: His name rhymes with Sailor Tricks) on the other hand got the dubious distinction of lowest-selling debut album among "Idol" winners.

Speaking of paranoia, the previous post dwelt on conspiracy theories, but here's some good insight as to maybe why Lambert landed in the bottom two: He's too versatile. Season 3 alum Jon Peter Lewis thinks Lambert "could just go so many different ways, and that's been my problem with Adam the whole year. Who is Adam Lambert?" (And Lewis means that in a good way, so don't be hating and asking back, "Who is Jon Peter Lewis?")

For what it's worth, the Final Four's ranking according to performance night searches...

1. Adam Lambert
2. Danny Gokey
3. Kris Allen
4. Allison Iraheta

Filed under: TV, Reality TV, American Idol, Music