the buzz log
Idol Talk: Has Our World Been Rocked?
When last we Idol talked, Danny Gokey had redeemed himself, Allison Iraheta got a break, and fans of Adam Lambert had to get out the AED and self-fibrillate over the shock of the Broadway warbler landing in the bottom three on "American Idol."
Note we didn't say bottom two, even though Kris Allen left Lambert and Matt Giraud to scurry to safety. The blogosphere has been in an uproar over what one Buzz Log commenter has called "such a Producer Gimmick...Trying to make all of us think that Adam would be in the bottom two..." Mebbe. With no more vetoes, the only suspense left is a juicy Conspiracy Theory! Bring it on!
The biggest factor of course is, the show's built on passion, not fairness, as callers try to make multiple votes. Another factor is (as searches and a Los Angeles Time blogger reveal) that this Fox audience is getting on in years. Could it be that while Lambert gets attention, he may not necessarily be warming the cockles of a crotchety audience who's seen it all? Then again, the LAT says the older crowd tunes in on Wednesdays, not on performance night, so they're probably not voting anyhow.
Whatever the reason, all this messes up projections on who's going to win it, although we'll try our darndest next week. Below's a table that that lays out a profile of each contestant's top online supporters from the past 7 days, as well as what the "Idol" audience has been looking like.
| "American Idol" Final Four Web Supporters | |||
Contestants By Search Rank |
Core Age, Male & Female | Proportion of Female Searchers, All Ages |
Leading State Supporters |
| Adam Lambert | 35-44 | 73% | Kansas, Ohio, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin |
| Danny Gokey | 30-54 | 71% | Wisconsin, Missouri, Ohio, New York, Alabama |
| Kris Allen | 25 and under | 62% | Arkansas, California, Texas, New Jersey, Pennsylvania |
| Allison Iraheta | 17 and under | 60% | California, New York, Texas, Virginia, Illinois |
| "American Idol" (for comparison) | 35-64 | 66% | Arizona, Oregon, Wisconsin, Ohio, California |
A few notes on the above:
- Among Allen's state searchers, his Arkansas home base has a nine-fold lead over No. 2 California. That doesn't bode well for a top 2 spot for the Conway (Ark.) boy. At least the college-aged crew likes him.
- Iraheta primarily appeals to the urban areas, and being from blasé Los Angeles tends to be more of a drawback (think Katharine McPhee). Then again, so's Lambert.
- A Search heat map shows Web passions for Gokey, while more widespread than Allen and Iraheta, are surprisingly lukewarm. More heat maps in an upcoming post.
- Lambert, who has a tenfold Search lead over Gokey, gets queries about his sexuality, but the majority of his lookups (93%) focus on his performance.
- Just for the heck of it, we looked into the five top "Idol" states' searches (see last row) to see whom they favored: Same ranking order, with Lambert on top. Go figure. Maybe only conspiracies make sense after all.
Filed under: TV, Reality TV, American Idol, Music
Idol Talk: Pining for the Old Days?
Just after we declare that Danny Gokey's lost his edge, his numbers pump up again to chug past Kris Allen's after Tuesday night's Rat Pack performance. The judges falling over themselves to praise Gokey probably helped too, topped with Simon Cowell's declaration that Gokey was in it to win it. (Those Brits do like their internal rhymes.)
All well and good for Danny boy, but at the risk of being Debbie Downers, there is bad news for the Wisconsin warbler. No, it's not Adam Lambert having a twelve-fold lead over runner-up Gokey (which is true). The other bad news: Four of the final five's online popularity don't stack up to last year's Season 7 singers.
Why that should be, who knows. Series fatigue, too many judges, samey-samey format. Maybe the performers' collective talent is working against them, and there are no strong allegiances being created. Or, maybe the Season 8 crew are too similar to one another, unlike last year when a mere glance could separate a Cook from an Archuleta from a Mercado (not to mention a Castro). And a close race could mean projections on the win will be much more difficult to make...well, at least a close race for second, if Lambert continues his whopping dominance.
Review for yourself the difference between Web passions for this crop and last year's, ranked in order of their searches during Top 5 performance night. (Note: The ranking's based on queries from the core "Idol" groups of women 30-54, which drops Allison Iraheta below Giraud. Judging from previous experience, the ladies pretty much decide who's "Idol" material.)
2009 vs. 2008 Top 5 "American Idol" Contestants,
performance night searches on Yahoo!
- Adam Lambert: Nearly three times more searches than 2008 frontrunner David Cook.
- Danny Gokey. About half the searches of David Archuleta.
- Kris Allen. One-third less searches than Brooke White (eliminated in Top 5 week).
- Matt Giraud. A whopping 80% drop in look-ups compared to Jason Castro.
- Allison Iraheta. Half the Web appeal of Syesha Mercado.
Filed under: TV, Reality TV, American Idol, Music
Idol Talk: Who's the Real Leader?
Now that "American Idol" is down to the Top 5, questions of leadership are being asked.
The president can audition like everybody else
No sirree, Fox is putting its foot down: No more free time for Barack Obama. The network finally said no to the leader of the country who had the temerity to ask for yet another primetime spot..and during ratings sweeps week. The 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET would only disrupt "Lie to Me," but who knows: No. 44 could go on and on, right into "Idol" territory. And Fox producers know the dangers of having a show runs overtime.
Seacrest's not-so-secret crush
By golly, Ryan Seacrest has some weight to throw around this reality competition, and if his Twitter or emails have any sway, Susan Boyle—the Cinderella story of this season's "British's Got Talent"—could be standing by his side. That would only do good things for "Idol," as none of their contestants have stirred up the Web frenzy that Boyle has. Perhaps there should be a diplomatic trade... maybe once Sanjaya's done with his latest reality show.
What do you do a problem like Iraheta?
Allison Iraheta delivers impressive vocals week after week, and arguably has shown much more growth than early favorites like Danny Gokey. The judges consider her a serious contender, but the flaming red-head consistently hogs the bottom-three stools. Yes, it's a tough field this season, but surely Iraheta deserves better? Could her rough-hewn, Joplinesque be a little too mature for a homeschooled 17 year old? She's delivering the heartache in Bonnie Raitt numbers and an ache in Donna Summer hits; but calling a pre-teen "hot stuff" can sound a little creepy.
iTunes anti-climactic revelation
New York Post exposed the "glitch" revealing which were the best-selling "Idol" downloads on the Apple online music store. Kris Allen surpassed Gokey...is this really a "shocker?" Nah. That's about how passions are running online too: So far in April, the Arkansas newlywed's searches have squeaked by Wisconsin church music director's 14 days out of 27, and his latest lead has been consistent since April 21. But, both of them combined still doesn't come close to the front runner...
...that leads us to the most searched Season 8 contestants....
Top 5 "American Idol" Contestants on Yahoo!, past 7 days
Filed under: TV, Reality TV, American Idol, Music
Idol Talk: Skewing the Vote
You know the Fox reality show audience is getting restless when they start looking to import the talent. Pensive searches for "american idol susan boyle" spiked this week, as did the geographically confused "american idol england."
Not that good ol' red-blooded American contestants weren't singing their hearts out in that native art form known as disco this week. (And yes, Adam Lambert scored a sickening lead in performance night searches on Yahoo!.) But, could the wistful longing for an overseas twist be partly traced to discontentment over the judges' veto deployed during Top 8 week? Matt Giraud got the save, but registered dead last in online interest Tuesday. He even lagged behind Lil Rounds, who has been dodging the "karoake" branding iron that Simon Cowell keeps wielding. If judges are going to fix results, might as well reward someone like Boyle.
Anyhow, the lackluster Web interest means that Giraud and Rounds should be planning a double-elimination date (proving that thwarting the will of the people is useless). But, at this stage in the competition, it's still too early to determine who goes first. Dialidol, a favorite online checkpoint for "Idol" fans, has been claiming lately that results are too close to predict a clear loser. Plus, there's always complications like Vote for the Worst, which still lives to wreak mischief by promoting the cheesiest performer.
That's not the only "Idol" sites trying their darndest to shift popular opinion to their preferred candidates. Here are the top online stops (besides this one, of course) where people get their "Idol" fix:
Filed under: TV, Reality TV, American Idol, Music
Idol Talk: Ladies' Night?
Simon Cowell tried to send one "American Idol" contestant into exile... but did his criticism work?
Renditions of movie theme songs on performance night left judges with mixed feelings about some favorites (Danny Gokey). A dark horse (Allison Iraheta) was also declared and a death watch began for Lil Rounds, whose R&B-infused version of "The Rose" left judge Cowell remarkably unimpressed. But, he had already called Iraheta the hope of the remaining women, and with only two left, the math's not hard to figure out.
Speaking of women, ladies remain the core faithful for the family-friendly Fox reality competition. Last season, the fans who followed the show most online were ages 30-54. This year, the breakdown still skews female (66%), and now they may be older (30-64).
So, on the premise that reality TV cougars will strongly influence the vote, a look at Tuesday night searches among women show a strong jump to Lil Rounds' defense. (If you throw in searches from men and young'uns, Iraheta has the advantage). She also jumps ahead of Matt Giraud.
Are the ladies merely rubbernecking at this early favorite's possible end? One thing's for sure: Adam Lambert continues to have a ridiculously huge lead.
Top Searched 7 "American Idol" Contestants Among Females 30-64, Tuesday Performance Night
Filed under: TV, Reality TV, American Idol, Music
top movers
| Rank | Subject | 1-Day Move |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ford 400 | Breakout! |
| 2 | Indonesia Ferry | Breakout! |
| 3 | Jordan Chandler | 3481% |
| 4 | Evan Chandler | 2322% |
| 5 | American Music Awards | 1841% |
| 6 | John F. Kennedy | 1529% |
| 7 | Turkey Stuffing Recipes | 1361% |
| 8 | Liam Hemsworth | 1172% |
| 9 | Lou Dobbs | 1142% |
| 10 | Hendrick Motorsports | 888% |
top leaders
| Rank | Subject | Move | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Black Friday | +340 | 1290 |
| 2 | NFL | +489 | 670 |
| 3 | Jennifer Lopez | +451 | 515 |
| 4 | New Moon | -67 | 250 |
| 5 | American Music Awards | +236 | 249 |
| 6 | UFC | -36 | 239 |
| 7 | Miley Cyrus | +66 | 169 |
| 8 | Hulu | -11 | 154 |
what's the buzz?
A subject's buzz score is the percentage of Yahoo! users searching for that subject on a given day, multiplied by a constant to make the number easier to read. Weekly leaders are the subjects with the greatest average buzz score for a given week.
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