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Recession Baby Blues

By Vera H-C Chan
Wed, July 08, 2009, 4:00 am PDT

Baby market—bullish or bearish?

Among the many trends attributed to (or blamed on) the recession, people have been trying to figure out if baby bundles are on the rise. Are bad times contributing to some good times, borne out 9 months later in a population boomlet?

One USA Today blogger is seeing babies all around her, not only on reality TV but also from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS): 2007 fertility rates were a wee bit higher than 2006 (2.12 vs 2.1). However, earlier this year, The New York Times threw cold water on many stork deliveries and adoptions. Slate recently cited a medical group's neonatal slump as proof of less "fruitful reproductive activity." While NPR found a lady or two taking advantage of the downturn, it said "no solid statistics" existed since birth rates are what number-crunchers call a "lagging indicator."

Well, there could be another way figure this out: the Web. Moms-to-be (and impending dads as well) often head to Yahoo! Search to look up fertility tools like:

 

Adding these all up should give a bouncing-baby clue. Will there be more boys? And girls? The possible answer:

Gloomy Family Forecast
Search numbers do echo the NCHS facts, that pregnancy-related research peaked in July-December 2007. Look-ups for "baby announcements," "baby shoes" and "baby toys" had a high during that same time period.

The recession officially started December 2007. Since then, baby-friendly searches haven't just dropped (a 15% drop in January-June 2009 versus July-December 2007)—they're at an all-time low since 2005.

Chance of Baby Showers
Here's one quirk: Baby shower-related queries are at an all-time high. How could that be? Well, normally, U.S. birth rates are higher in the August through October months, so people could be gearing up for a fresh batch...but that doesn't explain everything.

Another theory: People might be making a bigger baby shower fuss, since they're scrimping on everything else. Americans splurged for a homey Fourth of July. Plus, a shower's the big chance to get good gifts—and save mom and dad some out-of-pocket expenses.

Pregnant Pause
So, nearly all Search signs point to a pregnant pause...but that doesn't mean ladies aren't thinking about it. Lookups for ovulation calendars and calculators are pretty steady. Gotta keep an eye on that biological clock.

Filed under: Health, Pregnancy, Predictions, Babies, Economics

Appeasing the Ox: Trying to Get Lucky in the Lunar New Year

By Vera H-C Chan
Fri, January 23, 2009, 3:52 pm PST

This year, you'll need all the luck you can get.

Searches for "chinese new year" (+53%), "lunar new year" (+141%) and "year of the ox" (30%) have been revving up on Yahoo!. Besides well-wishes, people are looking to up crafts, recipes, and predictions for the year 4707.

Speaking of predictions — yeah, they're not all good. Some prognosticators are saying the Ox shows no fire in the belly to get the economy up. Others say there's too much fire, and that's not so good. Luckily, President Barack Obama happens to be an Ox man himself and, after initial trouble, might score some diplomatic pluses.

While Lunar New Year may be best known as an event celebrated by the Chinese, cultures such as the Korean, Hmong, Thai, and Vietnamese also observe the holiday. Like any occasion celebrated for nearly 5,000 years, a whole lot of customs, superstitions, and traditions from all over Asia have emerged — like not cleaning the house on New Year's Day so as not to sweep out good luck.

But, if you want a chance to renew your resolutions, guard your house against evil spirits, and ensure good fortune, here are a few preparations you can make to start the year ... again ... to your advantage.

Sweets for the Sweet
Get an eight-sided prosperity tray for visitors. Usually this tray's stocked with candied ginger, lotus root, lotus seeds, young coconut, melon, and kumquat. Also have round offerings, like pomelos (the Chinese homonym sounds like "to have"), mandarin oranges, and dumplings on hand. Why? Round denotes coming full circle and unity. For a dose of authenticity, "nian'gao" is a glutinous rice flour mixed with sugar and water then steamed. The word "gao" also translates to "ascension," so eating this helps one ascend in the coming year.

Show Me the Money
New Year cards basically adopted the western tradition of passing paper greetings, and they've been available online for years. But children and unmarried people really reap big this time of year, since they're eligible for the "lai see" or "hungbao," red envelopes stuffed with crisp cash. Ideally, give amounts divisible by two (to symbolize double greetings and appreciation), but single $1 bills can add up to a nice booty. Also, while the economy may not entirely permit you to settle all your debts, traditionally paying off who you owe by the Lunar New Year starts you off on a clean slate.

Getting the Red Up
Households hang up red paper scrolls called "hui chun," red couplets with four-character inscriptions. They typically mean things like "May your spirits be at ease and prosperous," "Peace upon entering and exiting," or "May one get one's heart's desires." Some are meant specifically for the kitchen or door. If you like the look (or are really paranoid), keep them up for year-round luck and to ward off monsters.

What to Burn (and What Not to Burn)
Firecrackers scare off evil spirits, but setting them off in the living room probably violates some fire code. The compromise: hanging fake firecrackers. People do burn incense, often sandlewood, and especially at ancestral shrines, temples, or family burial sites. Finally, you're entitled to burn some so-called "hell money," the fake stuff to pay respect to your forebears and make sure the afterlife's comfortable.

Blossom Anew
Try not to think of global warming, but appreciate any flowers that bloom during New Year festivities: That may signal a particularly good year ahead. Ideal blooms: peach blossom (long life and a charm against evil), kumquat trees, narcissus, and cherry blossoms.

Top Lunar New Year Searches on Yahoo!, past 7 days
(Yes, in this case, 13's a lucky number)
  1. Chinese New Year
  2. Year of the Ox
  3. 2009 Year of the Ox Predictions
  4. Chinese New Year Card
  5. Chinese New Year Greetings
  6. Chinese New Year Songs
  7. Chinese New Year Wallpaper
  8. Chinese New Year Decorations
  9. Chinese New Year 2009 Horoscope
  10. Happy Chinese New Year in Chinese
  11. Chinese New Year Cartoon
  12. Chinese New Year Food
  13. Chinese New Year Wishes

Filed under: New Year, Holidays, Predictions, Decorating, Barack Obama, Chinese New Year

Powell Play

By Vera H-C Chan
Tue, August 19, 2008, 9:40 am PDT

Will former secretary of state Colin Powell endorse Barack Obama at next week's Democratic National Convention? Powell's camp issued denials last week, but the rumors persist from two very different sources:

On the Republican side: Bill Kristol, a former Dan Quayle aide and currently a Fox News Channel commentator and New York Times Op-Ed columnist. He launched the speculative fervor last week when he told Fox, "We all talk to people who talk to people." But does Powell think that people who need people are the luckiest people in the world? He says piffle, he's not Denver-bound.

Then, on the Democratic side: Willie Brown, former speaker of California State Assembly and ex-San Francisco mayor. In a Sunday column, Brown suggested Powell wouldn't fly to Denver, but a thumbs' up may still be in the works.

Regardless, Powell is now on the political watchdog list: His searches have popped 707% in the past week to make the top 30,000 terms. At least one thing may be certain: If Powell's not going to Denver, people who talk to people can take that one very special person off the Veep List.

Filed under: Politics, Predictions, News, Elections, Presidents

Rat Pack

By Vera H-C Chan
Wed, February 06, 2008, 11:02 am PST

Storms bogging down lunar new year celebrations? Sounds like a rat trick to us.

The lunar year 4706 alights this week, just when China is seeing its worst winter in decades. Blame the rat's water element: The Chinese zodiac (the second most-searched new year's term after "chinese new year") also cranks back to the beginning of the cycle, making this the Year of the Rat. Twelve critters showed up at Buddha's earthly farewell party and got a year named after them. The rodent got first dibs by misleading the tiger about the race date, then riding on an ox's back before scurrying forward to land the first spot. Tricky.

The weather hasn't dampened the Buzz festivities world-wide: Searches for the occasion are higher than last year, with lookups into New Year celebrations (+623%), greetings (+242%), food (+475%), lion dance (+433%), songs (+44%), and traditions.

The main animal attraction hasn't been repulsing party-seekers either. Queries into "chinese new year rat" (243%) and "year of the rat" (+69%) have scampered into the top 5,000 searches in the past week. Not only that, he has generated 20% more interest than the pig did last year. People have also been soliciting his prognostications with "year of the rat 2008 predictions chinese astrology."

Nothing is ever simple with "chinese calendar" (+29%), of course. February 7 doesn't just fall under the sign of the rat, but the earth rat (each creature falls under five elements). All these characteristics come into play, and has spawned predictions about investments, floods, and even the next U.S. president. But really, how much can you trust a rat?

Filed under: New Year, Holidays, Animals, Predictions, Chinese New Year

Iowa Ruckus

By Vera H-C Chan
Thu, January 03, 2008, 3:00 am PST

Polls, tea leaves, and pig entrails: Figuring out the Iowa caucus ruckus hasn't been easy. Attempts have been made to explain the messy process itself and its history, although confusion still drives inquisitive queries on "what is a caucus" (+771%) and other important questions like "what is a caucus election," "what is the iowa caucus," and the difference between "caucus vs. primary."

Prognosticating the results gets even harder when the good citizens are reportedly a) indecisive about the candidates themselves, b) downright bored, and c) perhaps indifferent to showing up at all.

In defense of the nearly 3 million people who make up the state's population, the Buzz numbers show Iowans are doing their civic duty, at least online: In the past 7 days, "iowa caucus" (+624%) landed in the top 150 searches, edging out "tv guide" and "angelina jolie" (although less than "julia roberts"—but hey, she's favored for an Oscar nom).

As for who might emerge from the heartland with a political edge, the next best thing to pig entrails might be checking how much political homework Hawkeye residents have been doing about the candidates.


Contenders Iowa Searchers (all voters) Iowa Searchers (18-29) Iowa Searchers (30+)
John Edwards (Dem) Tied for first Fifth First
Hillary Rodham Clinton (Dem) Tied for first Second Second
Barack Obama (Dem) Second First Third
Mike Huckabee (Rep) Third Third Fourth
Ron Paul (Rep) Fourth Fourth Fifth
Mitt Romney (Rep) Fifth Sixth Sixth
John McCain (Rep) Sixth Seventh Eighth
Fred Thompson (Rep) Seventh Eighth Seventh
Joe Biden (Dem) Eighth N/A Ninth

Notes on the above... Among searchers of voting age, Edwards and Clinton shared the Buzz lead in the past seven days, although Edwards doesn't command the interest of the younger generation. A remarkable consistency is shared among people 30-44 and 44 on up, with maybe a flip-flop between McCain and Thompson.

 

Filed under: Politics, Predictions, Elections

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